Hilary is done for.

Not because of her health. Not because of the remark about Trump supporters. Although thats an example of a greater thing.

She’s done for because the Democrats don’t understand why people are supporting Trump.

And if they do understand, they’re not modifying their messaging. They’re preaching to the choir. They’re convincing people who already were never going to vote for Trump to not vote for Trump. They’re villainizing Trump supporters instead of acknowledging their concerns. This is not a good strategy to convince the people on the fence.

If you think that Trump has some good ideas and all you hear from democrats is that he is despicable, how likely are you to vote for Hilary? Not likely. More likely you will take it as a personal affront. Since you share some of his views.

This means that HC isn’t going to win over any new voters in the next two months. (unless she changes course) Which means that it will come down to demographics.

Sure she’s “leading” in the polls. (45.8% vs 43.4%) But not by much and the volatility in the past few months has been huge. In March HC was up 11 points. In July Trump was up 1 point.

Plus the “Nielson effect” is working in Trump’s favor. Nielson families tend to watch educational programing for the first few months that their TV monitoring devices are installed. Once they get used to being monitored they show their true colors. They start to watch the food network and Bravo. The same is likely to be happening to the American public. People don’t want to admit they like Trump. But once it comes time to vote they will vote Trump.

Some estimates have this effect changing the polls by 10% or more. More than enough to give Trump a comfortable win.

And abstracting that concept further, popular culture has been preparing for this moment for decades.

Among the most popular shows on The Discovery Channel are “Amish Mafia”, “American Chopper”, “Biker Build Off”, and “Naked and Afraid”.

Among the most popular shows on The History Channel are “Pawn Stars”, “Ancient Aliens” and “Swamp People”.

Not to mention Duck Dynasty.

Why now? Because in the past this part of the US culture didn’t have a real voice. They were lumped into the Republican camp but they didn’t really care for Republican ideals. These people are not wealthy. They don’t share the Republican elite’s devotion to small government and borderline libertarianism.

Trump is doing so well because his only consistent position is: “The current system doesn’t work.” Everything else he is willing to compromise on. He is finally addressing the concerns of a large part of the United States

To be clear, I’m not saying its a good thing. Just that at this point it doesn’t look like there is enough time for HC to turn it around.

^Day 56/90 486 words

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