The only way it breaks is Aliens.
It feels like everything is only getting better. Even though there was a recession in 2008 the economy is back on track and cities have not fallen to pieces the way they did in the 70s. Instead, they’ve continued to grow. We have more public spaces, more construction. More awesome technology. More new jobs.
We’re in the Pax Americana.
There were at least two similar moments in history:
1. Right before World War 1
2. During the height of the Roman Empire
Right before WW1 the world was globalized. People were seeing the benefits of interconnection. It seemed impossible that there would ever be a war again. And then the worst war to date happened.
Are we in that same situation now?
No we’re not. Although the world seemed interconnected in 1914, it was barely aware. We are locked to the rest of the world now. China doesn’t want to lose exports to the US. The US does not want to lose china as a market. The number of relationships like this is nearly infinite.
The global elite, the people that decide to go to war, have way less to lose than to gain from fighting. And that is what will determine if there is fighting. Its decided by the people at the top. Its much more profitable to keep economies intact. To militarize but not use the weapons. Or to have small scale wars in far away places. But not to have a full scale war.
Additionally, the elite is increasingly not loyal to specific countries. Increasingly the elite is loyal to the global world order. To themselves. If one country threatens that order it is chastised by all the others. This will prevent any large scale conflicts.
The Roman empire fell apart for two reasons:
1. Internal decadence and lack of cohesion.
2. External Invasion / pressure.
Whether the current world order is decadent is debatable. Its a commonly discussed topic. I’d argue that we’re just more aware of the differences now than in the past.
Donald Trump isn’t a threat to this balance. In fact, he’s an example of the system working to resolve our differences. There are two clear factions facing off in the United States. And they’re doing so in a formal organized fashion. In most part refraining from violence or illegal actions.
Dealing with Donald Trump will reduce decadence and make the global world order more robust.
That said, even if there is decadence, there is no one to take advantage of it.
There is no possibility of external invasion to the new world order. There are no “unknown” territories on the Earth. So the current world order will likely stick around.
That is, unless Aliens.
And there are almost definitely Aliens.
And they are almost definitely stronger than us.
What do you think?
^Day 61/90 486 words