Software developers are the modern carpenters.

Like carpenters the skill will lose value over time.

For thousands of years carpenters were sought after skilled professionals. They created beautiful works of art and were crucial to everyday building.

Now we have machines that stamp out the wooden furniture that we need.

There is currently a massive demand for software developers. That will subside in the coming decades.

1. Writing software is an accessible skill. This will lead to a massive over supply of software developers.

2. Basic software development tasks will become automated. We’ll create interfaces that make it easy to do them without being a full scale developer. Things like websites, business applications and home automation. We’re already seeing this with services like squarespace and quickbase.

3. The software development jobs that will remain with be extremely complex. These developers will also have massive leverage due to existing replication infrastructure. Because of this, the number of jobs will be very small.

Its also possible that software development will become as common a skill as writing. In which case my thesis stands. Think about how many writers there are out there right now vs how many writers that make their living through writing.

^Day 72/90 206 words

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